World Cup 2026

[Fishy]

Hopefully abduct most of the Scotland  squad then..

[Fishy]

God we're shit.. struggling now to get out the group in a stupid competition with too many teams.. usual reliance on other teams fucking up even worse than us., if that's even possible..   to qualify as best third place which in itself is just fkn nonsense...

[Slim]

Beat Haiti, marginal defeat by Morocco, a tough one against Brazil. I wouldn't be too down on them, that's pretty much what you'd expect.

If you do go through to the knockouts there's a shot at redemption.

[Fishy]

If we get thru it could be Mexico..so might as well start packing..

[Slim]

From the BBC site, emphasis mine

Highslide Image Viewer

[Thenop]

A tells me there is a 38-42% chance of reaching the knock outs.
Also:
If Scotland qualifies as one of the best third-placed teams, they will face the winner of Group A (Mexico), Group E (Germany), or Group I (France or Norway).

[Slim]

I heard 24% this morning, on the BBC. I don't really know they work that out.

[Slim]

ChatGPT says:

Yes — 24% is very plausible, and I can see how a model could get there.

Scotland's position is fixed now: 3 points, goal difference -3, goals scored 1 after the 3-0 defeat to Brazil.

They can only qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams from the twelve groups. The ranking is by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then fair-play/disciplinary record if needed.

The important bit is this: Scotland do not need most things to go their way. They need at least four of the other third-placed teams to finish below them, because only four of the twelve third-placed teams are eliminated.

But their -3 goal difference and only one goal scored make them a rather poor 3-point third-place side.

My rough model would put it around 20-30%, with 24% bang in the middle.

Here's the rough logic. Scotland are already worse than some completed third-place sides, notably Bosnia & Herzegovina on 4 points and South Korea on 3 points with a better goal difference.

So Scotland need help from the remaining groups. Some groups are quite likely to help them — for example Group E, Group H, Group I or Group K could easily produce a third-place side with fewer than 3 points, or with a worse record. Others are very unlikely to help them — Group F, Group G, Group L, and probably Group D/J are more likely to produce a third-place side better than Scotland.

A back-of-envelope probability table might look like this:

Code Select Expand

Group  / Chance its third-place side finishes below Scotland
D    ~10-15%
E    ~65-75%
F    ~5%
G    ~5-10%
H    ~45-55%
I    ~40-50%
J    ~15-20%
K    ~45-55%
L    ~5-10%

If you combine those — treating them as roughly independent, which is not perfectly true but good enough for this sort of estimate —

Scotland need four or more of those nine groups to be helpful.

Using midpoints from that table gives a probability of about 23-25%.

So I'd say the BBC reporter's 24% is not a "mathematical fact", but it is a very credible model output. It probably comes from a simulation using betting-market or Elo-style match probabilities, repeatedly playing out the remaining group games and counting how often Scotland sneak into the top eight third-place table.

The intuitive version: Scotland are still alive, but they are now relying on several modestly unlikely things happening together. Not miracle territory, but definitely "nervous scoreboard-watching" territory.

[Fishy]

It's just complete nonsense that this best third scenario is even happening ..top 2 go thru and that's it.. nice n easy

[dom]

If we get thru it could be Mexico..so might as well start packing..

Yeah but there are much better teams out there than Mexico.

[David L]

Ha! Justice for Ecuador after they should've been awarded a free kick for reckless play before the Germany goal. 1-1

[pxr5]

Ecuador aren't a great team but they are playing with so much heart and passion - chasing everything. It's all Scotland, and even England, must do at times. You can then forgive them if they lose; that at least they gave their all - like Ecuador are doing.

I agree with David, that should have been a free kick to Ecuador - why didn't VAR jump in?

[Fishy]

Yeah hope Ecuador win actually.. they look good..

[David L]

GOAL!!!!!!!!!

[David L]

Yes! Well done Ecuador! Absolutely love the passion of their manager. He looks straight out of Summer Bay!